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We have found that the incessant
questions asked by children on a trip are also
imitated by adults on CNBC and virtually
everywhere else.
We have heard literally thousands of
times in the last months “Is it time to buy the
financials? Is the market at the bottom? Is it
time to get in?” The questions go on and on
by many who should know better because, of
course, there is no answer.
We view the markets as fundamentalists, and are sorry to say,
the news is not yet good. In fact it's very bad! Our desires
cannot control reality.
More than 663,000 jobs disappeared
from the economy in March bringing the total
in excess of 5 million. Tragically, we seem to
be getting used to figures like these. The first
three months of 2009 saw the unemployment
rate soaring to 8.5% up from 7.6%. This is
the highest level in more than a quarter of a
century. More than 2 million jobs were lost
according to the Labor Department's
employment report released on Friday, April
3. Nearly every job category was affected, and
Dean Baker, a director of the Center for
Economic and Policy Research in
Washington said “There is just no way we are
anywhere near a bottom. We’ll be really
lucky if we stop losing jobs by the end of the
year.”
These events have prompted talk that
another wave of a government stimulus
spending may be needed to augment the $787
billion already being spent. Baker continued
“We are clearly looking at a worse downturn
than they had been anticipating when they
planned the stimulus.” Mr. Baker, whose
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organization tends toward liberal policy
prescriptions, said “We’re going to need some
more.”
The argument is whether we need
more stimulus now or later, how many
dollars will be required and how can the
country afford it? Above all, will it work?
This severe recession/depression was
initiated by a crisis in the credit markets. The
crisis still exists as no one has yet been able to
determine the value of the toxic assets that
the banks and the non-banks carry on their
books. We believe that AIG still carries
approximately $1.6 trillion of toxic assets on
its balance sheet. Until an answer can be
found that can put a value on the toxic assets
held by the banks and “non-banks” the crisis
will continue.
Consumer spending appears to have
leveled a bit after nose-diving in the last
quarter of 2008. Auto sales improved slightly
month over month in February versus
January, and house sales have been
improving in important markets like
California and Florida although at
substantially reduced prices. These are all
most welcome signs, but they hardly negate
the overwhelming problems our nation
continues to face.
It is most important that, we must not
overlook the fact that the rest of the countries
around the world --- large or small, developed
or developing --- are facing the same
problems, many of which are even more dire
than those here at home. They all directly
affect us as the world in reality is one great
big Tar Baby like the one in Uncle Remus’
old Georgia story.
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What we really
need, is to find and
convince a Brer Fox to fling us, Brer Rabbit,
into the Briar Patch. Remember that was how
Brer Rabbit escaped Brer Fox because he,
Brer Rabbit, was Born and Bred in the Briar
Patch. Easter, one of Brer Rabbit’s favorite
holidays, is coming in a few days, and that
could be a good omen.
Another good sign: Stock and bond
markets have been stabilizing when
compared to the last five or six months, and
there have been rallies in this extremely
volatile bear market that have been strong
enough to bring risk-takers back into the
fray. We are encouraged by these
developments, but do not believe they can be
sustained until we see concrete improvement
with regard to the fundamentals. We repeat
that the basic problems, unfortunately, will
continue until a workable solution can be
found for the all pervasive credit crisis.
Further, we warn investors to take
with a grain of salt the exclamations by the
pundits and TV entertainers that certain
stocks or stock market averages are up 10, 15
or 20%. While their words are technically
correct, they are, nevertheless, deceptive.
A most important yet simple example:
If an investor buys a stock at $10 and it sells
down to $1 per share, the loss is 90%. (Many
stocks have fallen to this extent over the last
year and a half.) What we are warning about
is that when the “talking heads" are
exclaiming that a stock or a market has risen
by 10 or 20% or whatever, it can still take our
investor, with his 90% loss, a very long time
to get even. The plain truth is that for his $1
dollar stock to rise to $2, the stock has to rise
by 100% --- while for his stock to return to
$10, it will have to rise another 400% before
he can break even.
This is why we always attempt to
Conserve Capital because the simplest way to
make money is to keep from losing it in the
first place.
A few other subjects that are of great
importance but that would turn these few
pages into a book are the value of the dollar
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versus gold and the hyperinflation that
U. S.
deficits combined with oceans of our
fiat/paper money will produce; and, the
forthcoming bankruptcy of General Motors
and how that the issues created by that event
will be handled by the Obama
administration’s managing Union demands.
Would it surprise you, if when the
government can or will no longer push the
string, the UAW would use its weight to have
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid confront
President Obama and the non-union public
from stopping the endless spending “to save”
the auto industry? You won’t have to wait too
long for this one.
And by the way, China holds
America’s financial future in its hands right
now. China can control this country’s
economic destiny with the dollars they own
today --- and they know it! Where are you Brer Fox? --- now that we need you?
From April’s
Atlantic magazine:
“Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran --- Or I
Will.” Jeffrey Goldberg wrote: …shortly
before he was sworn in today (April 1st) as
prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu
laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The
American president, he said, must stop Iran
from acquiring nuclear weapons --- and
quickly --- or an imperiled Israel may be forced
to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself.”
These are very interesting times
presenting extremely interesting challenges.
We need to have Brer Fox make another Tar
Baby so after getting caught we can escape to
freedom by having him fling us into the Briar
Patch where we were Born and Bred.
John W. Hamilton
April 7, 2009
John W. Hamilton
jwh@hamiltonadvisors.com
Deborah J. Hamilton
djh@hamiltonadvisors.com
J. Brock Hamilton
jbh@hamiltonadvisors.com
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PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT SINCE 1980 |
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This article contains the current opinions
of Hamilton Advisors and does not represent a recommendation of any
particular security, strategy or investment product. Such opinions are
subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be
considered as investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. ©
2009 Hamilton Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. Tel: 203 629 1112.
Fax: 203 629 1469
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